Agricultural Trade in the US
Trade is an important component of the U.S. agricultural sector. Exports of agricultural goods have averaged nearly $140 billion since 2010, while imports have been close to $100 billion. ERS tracks U.S. agricultural trade through the Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) data set and through commodity-specific data like the Livestock and Meat International Trade data set. Updated monthly, ERS trade data provide current information on trade developments that impact producers and consumers alike. The data can be used to analyze long-term drivers of trade, as well as year-to-year fluctuations.
Agricultural goods can be broken into distinct categories based on value or level of processing. Bulk goods, like grains and oilseeds, are sold in large quantities at relatively low per unit costs. Bulk commodities tend to be relatively standardized products. U.S. and foreign products in these categories are more readily substituted for each other, as changes in exchange rates alter relative prices among suppliers. Higher value goods, like meats, fruits and vegetables, and processed goods, are differentiated by factors such as brand, quality, or sanitary and phytosanitary standards. As a result, they may be less likely to be substituted across origins on the basis of price, or relative price in the case of exchange rates.
The U.S. trade weighted exchange rate index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis has shown strong dollar appreciation since 2014, resulting in declining exports for both categories. Bulk exports have declined by 9 percent since 2014, and high-value products have declined by 10 percent. While bulk goods would normally decline further than high-value goods during appreciation, the 2012-13 U.S. drought had a significant impact on the supply of corn, soybeans, and other major crops. As a result, export volume was significantly reduced over that period, but value remained high due to higher prices. As prices have fallen and stocks have been replenished, export volume has increased dulling the perceived impact of a rising dollar.
Exports expand the market for US Agricultural Products
Exports account for a large share of the total volume of U.S. production for select agricultural products. For example, over 70 percent of the volume of U.S. production of tree nuts (largely almonds) and cotton were exported in 2011-13, as was more than 50 percent of rice and wheat production. Overall, the export share of U.S. agricultural production averaged 20 percent from 2011 to 2013 based on volume, the same average annual share since 2000.
The USDA last month estimated U.S. milled rice production this year at 6.07 million tonnes, down from 7.12 million tonnes last year.
China last month resumed imports of U.S. beef for the first time since 2003. Last week, Chinese buyers inked deals valued at about $5 billion during a ceremony in Iowa to buy 12.53 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans and 371 tonnes of beef and pork.